The new Labor Government led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has a goal for a 43% reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions compared to 2005 levels, by 2030.
Is this goal adequate and does it fit within Australia’s emissions budget?
According to my analysis the answer is no.
Malte Meinshausen from the University of Melbourne did a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Budget analysis for the Victorian Government in 2019, looking at the Global GHG Emissions Budget, The Australian national GHG Emissions Budget, and the Victorian State GHG Emissions Budget to give us a 50% chance to of limiting Global Warming to 1.5C, in line with the Paris Agreement.
According to this analysis the Global GHG Emissions Budget from 2013 to 2050 when we reach Net Zero is only 800 Gt CO2eq. From 2013 to 2022 the world emitted about 435 Gt CO2eq, which leaves us with a budget of only 365 Gt CO2eq from 2022 to 2050.
From 2013 to 2022 annual global GHG emissions rose rather than decreased. Global emissions are now around 50 Gt CO2eq per year. So 365 Gt CO2eq will be used up in just over 7 years unless global emissions begin to drop substantially in the next year or two.
In terms of Australia, Malte Meinshausen calculated we have a 5.5 Gt CO2eq Budget from 2017 to 2050 when we reach net zero.
This figure was arrived at using The Australian Climate Change Authority’s concept of what a fair share of the global emissions budget would be for Australia. They are quite generous to Australia. Using other ethical approaches more favourable to developing countries would result in a reduced emissions budget for Australia.
From 2017 to 2022 Australia emitted 2.64 Gt CO2eq, which leaves only 2.86 Gt CO2eq in our National emissions Budget from now until 2050.
Our emissions are roughly 0.5 Gt CO2eq per year.
At this rate we will use our Budget for the next 28 years all up within only 6 years.
Labor’s 43% emissions reduction goal is clearly not good enough.
It will not keep Australia within our fair Greenhouse Gas Emissions Budget.
And therefore, unless the rest of the world does the heavy lifting in lieu of Australia, we will not succeed in meeting our goal of limiting Global Warming to less than 1.5C.
We need Labor to draw up a much better climate policy. This decade is crucial to humanity’s future.
Zoe Emily Mithen 