Since the 2017 Productivity Commission Report on NDIS Cost Estimates, we have seen volatility in NDIS Cost Estimates in the Budget Forward Estimates and in the NDIA Sustainability Report.
I made a table of these estimates from 2017 onwards so you can compare the figures:
NDIS participants have asked for more information about the modelling but so far it has not been made available to us. if the information was made available then an economic modeller could evaluate the cost estimates.
We do know a few things. The Australian Government Actuary signed off on the modeling, but made it clear the model depended on some assumptions. A deep dive by Australian Disability Intermediaries showed that in particular the assumption about the big increase in numbers of autistic participants by 2030 would lead to cost increases. This assumption was not justified and would mean the Scheme Actuary expects almost every Australian with autism to be an NDIS participant by 2030.
Shadow Minister for the NDIS Bill Shorten has challenged the Scheme Actuary’s modelling, but has not provided any alternative modelling to back up his claim. This is concerning in light of the Gillard Cabinet misleading Parliament about the NDIS cost estimates in 2013.
“This is the sixth set of rubbery figures the Morrison Government has hyped to justify planned cuts and privatisation of the NDIS,” he said.”
“Labor frontbencher Bill Shorten says new figures showing the National Disability Insurance Scheme will blow out to $60 billion by 2030 have all the credibility of claims there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.”
NDIS participants, carers, providers, and workers really need to know more details about the modelling to evaluate these competing claims.
Zoe Emily Mithen 